Last Week In A Nutshell Mortgage rates inched up as the Fed presented a murky view of rate cuts for the next two meetings, while multiple economic data reports came in stronger than expected. Upcoming Attractions This week should be fairly quiet for rates as the PCE release doesn’t usually move markets, but there will
Takeaway: Rates will remain mostly steady after the Fed executed the already priced-in 25 bps cut and painted a muddy picture in their projection for future rate cuts. Rates fell initially when the Fed’s statement was released, as the projection showed two more 25 bps rate cuts for the two remaining meetings in 2025—one more
Last Week In A Nutshell Rates fell after a spike in unemployment insurance claims overshadowed inflation data that was mostly benign, further propelling fears about the labor market. The Department of Labor later revealed, however, that the spike in UI claims was actually driven by fraudulent claims in Texas. Upcoming Attractions Fed meeting (Wednesday): With
Takeaway: Mortgage rates will ease a little bit more today as a jump in unemployment insurance claims overshadows a CPI inflation report showing an expected increase in inflation, nudging higher the odds of more rate cuts from the Fed in the coming months. Inflation is growing, especially in tariff-sensitive sectors, but the increase is gradual
Last Week In A Nutshell Weak labor market data indicates that the economy is at risk of a recession, meaning the Fed needs to start cutting rates next week. But the bottom hasn’t fallen out of the economy yet, so the Fed can afford to take it slow, avoiding outsized 50 bps cuts. This Week’s
Today’s weak jobs report all but guarantees that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its September 17 meeting, and that’s sending rates down today to their lowest level in almost a year. Since the mortgage market is already pricing in the Fed’s expected cut, mortgage rates are unlikely to fall